There Is No Pivot. There Is a Pattern.
The idea that Donald Trump has “pivoted” on Ukraine is a failure to recognize his well-established behavioral pattern. What some commentators see as a shift in policy is, in fact, the continuation of a coercive cycle, one that mirrors the logic of abusers, not statesmen.
It is a familiar pattern with authoritarians and abusers who promise, withdraw, offer again, punish, destabilize. These reversals are not evidence of indecision or Trump's infamous “Taco” syndrome. They are just deliberate abusive tactics aimed at control.
Trump’s behavior toward Ukraine has never been grounded in principles of alliance, solidarity, or strategic clarity. He creates instability by alternating between apparent support and explicit sabotage. This behavior keeps allies off balance, breaks trust, and invites dependency. It is a calibrated form of psychological warfare, not a pivot as some want to claim.
The media’s compulsion to interpret these cycles as policy shifts is dangerous. In the best case scenario it seeks to rehabilitate an actor who has consistently aligned himself with Russian interests. It flattens years of behavior into a single headline and misrepresents volatility for vision.
Trump's current claim that Ukraine will now receive the weapons it needs is crafted to obscure the truth. Defensive weapons, intended to protect civilians and already staged for delivery, were abruptly halted just as Russia unleashed its most intense attacks on Ukrainian families. And because regular Americans are horrified by Russia's latest brutal attacks on Ukrainian families, Trump deflects blame and once again states that defensive weapons for Ukraine should be revisited.
Additionally, at the same time, his administration is quietly extending lifelines to the Russian economy. On June 27, the U.S. Treasury under Trump issued General License 115B. This license explicitly authorizes financial transactions involving 13 Russian banks, including Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, and Alfa-Bank, ostensibly in support of civil nuclear energy projects. These banks are central to the Kremlin’s financial apparatus. They are embedded in both the war economy and the state’s coercive mechanisms. Allowing them access to U.S.-linked finance undercuts the entire sanctions regime.
That license also provides safe harbor for international firms to continue doing business with Russian entities, as long as it is obscured by being routed through the “civil nuclear” pretext. It weakens secondary sanctions pressure and makes clear that the U.S. accepts certain categories of Russian enrichment, even as it claims otherwise. No one could possibly call that a pivot away from Moscow.
And now, there is Trump's sanctions waiver demand. According to Politico, Trump is “interested” in new Russia sanctions, but only if Congress hands him full control over how they are enforced. This demand threatens to derail a bipartisan Senate bill designed to strengthen sanctions on Russia. He is demanding waiver authority that would allow him to nullify sanctions against countries importing Russian oil or uranium. The tariffs and penalties would exist on paper. But they would vanish the moment Trump decides they are no longer useful. So more smoke and mirrors. On the surface Trump supports a bill that appears strong. But only if an escape hatch is built in. If passed, the regime becomes entirely discretionary. Trump could waive penalties for countries aiding Russia. He could selectively enforce sanctions based on political loyalty. He could punish allies and reward adversaries. The regime would cease to function as a system of deterrence. It would become an instrument of extortion under the illusion of commitment. And of course, Democrats will oppose his demands, laying the groundwork to blame them for its failure.
Sanctions are not bargaining chips. They are the legal and strategic response to war crimes and international aggression. If they hinge on the approval of a man who has consistently praised Putin and weakened Ukraine, they are no longer sanctions at all. They simply provide cover for his impunity.